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Florence a Category 1 remains - Forward

Hurricane Florence has in the past 12 to 18 hours not increased much. The storm looks to the satellite images are not really very balanced - a sign that the storm a little "flimsy". Bermuda is however still a hurricane warning means winds are about about 130 mph in the eyewall, the gusts even higher. In addition, rainfall by 50 to 100 mm, locally up to 150 mm expected (compared to full-September in Germany, average of about 50 to 70 mm), the tensile direction is NNE-ward to Bermuda over. On his way towards Newfoundland and in the sea areas east of Florence is changing slowly in the coming days in a strong extratropical low.

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Hurricane Florence draws to Bermuda


"Florence" has strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane, the central pressure was estimated in the morning to 976 hpa. The means winds reach 130 mph and is expected to further intensify. According to present model calculations Florence will meet Monday as a Category 2 storm, Bermuda, the center will pass it just to the west. Similar to Hurricane "Fabian" in 2003, Bermuda will not however get the full force of the wind to feel the islands are yet (as seen in the direction of tension) in the right quadrant of the vortex. Here are cumulative rotation speed and train speed and the storm surge in this sector to propose full book. These come with rainfall amounts of 125-200 mm. The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has already issued a hurricane warning. Even during the night, conditions are worse there tomorrow then "hurricane conditions" to be expected. In the so-called "eyewall, a ring of strong convection around the center / eye of the hurricane, there are the strongest winds of 170 km / h in medium, with gusts to about 200 are possible tomorrow.
Behind "Florence" is still to the southeast A second, weaker system. Now, it does not look as if this storm developed from clusters in the near future a new system, but one is vigilant.

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to "Florence"



Since yesterday, the tropical depression intensified into Tropical Storm No 6. In the alphabet, or in the name list for the Atlantic we were in this season thus Florence. TS Florence is currently far northeast of the Lesser Antilles and the system moves in the days to come slowly to the northwest. The convection has increased, but in average Wind speeds were as yet no major changes were observed. The values are gechätzt to around 40 knots (about 72 km / h). For the next two to three days is still not expecting a larger increase. "Florence" is still struggling a bit with the wind shear in higher layers of the troposphere. Wind shear disrupts the circulation of the storm, ie, stronger wind in the height of "pushes" away the top part of the system. This is caused by an upper low to the north-west. This should weaken the model calculations, however slowly and then could a storm over the about 29 ° C warm water increase further. For the time being is "Florence" no greater threat to land areas dar. Whether the storm towards the weekend then slowly turns to the north and thus remains in the open sea, you have to wait. But we could see in a few days the first "major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) this season.

Lars